It is not surprising, but nonetheless somewhat disheartening, to see that one of the major effects of the housing bubble and its rising prices in the middle of the past decade was to cause people to move further “out” and away from their jobs. This outward migration resulted in longer commutes to work, stretching out to Pennsylvania and Maryland’s Upper Eastern Shore Region.

The latest county-to-county commutation data, which measures where people live and where they work, comes to us from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey (ACS).  The ACS is now the sole source of socioeconomic statistics. It replaces the once-a-decade decennial Census long-form (all residents used the short-form last spring) and will be released annually as one-, three- or five-year estimates, depending on the size of the geography covered.One of the chief findings of the 2006-2008 commutation data was that the number of residents who commuted from Pennsylvania into Maryland for work increased enormously.  During the 2006-2008 period, an estimated 57,000 Pennsylvania residents worked in Maryland, up from 41,000 in 2000.

That 16,000 increase between 2000 and 2006-2008 was nearly twice the gain during the 1990-2000 period (8,700). Migration data over the course of the current decade lends credibility to the commutation data, showing the number of Maryland residents moving to Pennsylvania steadily increasing between 2000 and 2006, before beginning to subside.  For example, the number of Maryland residents moving to Pennsylvania steadily increased from just under 1,200 in 2000, to nearly 2,700 in both 2005 and 2006.  Most of this movement involved the bordering counties on the Maryland side (Baltimore, Carroll, Harford and Frederick counties) and on the Pennsylvania side (York, Adams, Franklin and Lancaster).  In all cases, gains in housing value since 2000 and total housing value in 2006-2008 were lower on the Pennsylvania side of the border.

Such outward migration during the course of the decade also happened within Maryland and showed its effects on changing commutation patterns.  For instance, there was a large increase in the number of people moving from Harford County to Cecil County and from Queen Anne’s to Caroline County (ie., moving to places with relatively less expensive housing).  In each case, there was an increase in out-commuters: from Cecil County to the jurisdictions in the Baltimore region (particularly Harford) and from Caroline to Queen Anne’s County as well as to the Baltimore and Washington suburban regions.

For more information, go to the American Community Survey commuting data on the Maryland Department of Planning web site.

The writer, Mark Goldstein, is an economist with the Maryland Department of Planning.